Austin Housing Market Report: July 2026

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA · Data sourced from Unlock MLS (ABoR), Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, Freddie Mac PMMS, and U.S. Census Bureau.

Photo by MJ Tangonan via Unsplash

Executive Summary

After nearly three years of year-over-year price declines, the Austin housing market flashed a definitive green light in July 2026. The metro-wide median sold price climbed to $440,000, up 2.3% from July 2025 — the first positive annual median reading of the calendar year and a signal that the prolonged correction that began in mid-2023 is finally loosening its grip.

The price uptick is not happening in isolation. It arrives alongside tightening inventory, accelerating pending sales, and mortgage rates that, while still elevated in the mid-6% range according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, have become stable enough for buyers to build confidence. The market is not roaring back to the frenzy of 2021–2022, but the data increasingly points to a floor forming beneath Austin home values.

July 2026 Key Metrics at a Glance

Metric	July 2026	Year-over-Year Change
Median sold price (metro)	$440,000	+2.3%
Active listings (end of period)	~17,448	Tightening from peak
Pending sales	4,254	Strong forward momentum
Months of inventory	~4.5–5.0	Declining from 2025 levels
Average days on market	55–65	Roughly flat to slightly improved
Close-to-list ratio	~94%	Negotiator's market persists
30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.49%–6.66%	Down from 6.72% a year ago

Note: July 2026 full-month Unlock MLS statistics are preliminary as of this report's publication date. Full MLS data is typically released mid-month. Figures compiled from Unlock MLS market snapshots, Team Price Real Estate market tracking, and Freddie Mac PMMS.

The Price Story: A Turning Point, Not a Blip

The July median of $440,000 represents a meaningful shift. Through the first half of 2026, the year-to-date median stood at $424,833, still below 2025 levels. But monthly data has been turning before annual data — exactly the pattern analysts expect when a housing correction reaches its terminal phase.

To understand why this matters, consider the trajectory. Austin's trailing-12-month appreciation went from -4.6% (year ending June 2024) to -2.6% (year ending June 2025) to -2.0% (year ending June 2026). Each successive year, the rate of decline slowed. Now, in July, the year-over-year comparison has flipped positive. Corrections rarely end with a dramatic V-shaped recovery. They end with a gradual fade that eventually crosses zero — and that is precisely what July delivered.

The month-over-month sequence also tells a coherent story. June's metro median was $450,000 (up 1.1% YoY), and while July's $440,000 reflects a typical seasonal softening from the June peak, the year-over-year gain actually widened from 1.1% to 2.3%. That is the opposite of what you'd see if the June print were a one-month anomaly.

City of Austin vs. Metro

Within Austin city limits, prices have been leading the recovery. The City of Austin's June median was $605,000, up 3.6% year over year, with pending sales surging 16.5%. Travis County as a whole posted a median of $542,000, up 4.0%. The urban core is recovering faster than the exurbs — a pattern consistent with previous Austin cycles where central neighborhoods lead and peripheral markets follow.

Inventory: Supply Is Tightening

Photo by Mitchell Kmetz via Unsplash — Downtown Austin with Capitol building visible from South Congress Bridge

One of the strongest signals in the current market is the inventory picture. As of early August 2026, the Austin-area MLS reported approximately 17,448 active residential listings with 4,254 pending, yielding an Activity Index of 19.6%. While the absolute number of active listings remains elevated by historical standards, the trend is decisively downward.

In June 2026, active listings across the metro stood at 13,245, down 14.8% year over year — a reduction of roughly 2,300 listings from the prior year. Every core county in the metro saw inventory shrink:

• City of Austin: 4,665 active listings, down 22.1% YoY
• Travis County: Inventory tightened significantly
• Williamson County: Months of inventory dropped to 3.7, down 1.2 months YoY
• Hays County: 4.8 months of inventory, with median price surging 9.0% to $400,000

The decline in active listings is not being driven by a collapse in new listings. New listings in June were actually up 1.8% year over year to 4,712. What's happening is that demand is absorbing supply faster than it's being added. Pending sales jumped 13.2% metro-wide in June and the showing activity tracked through ShowingTime was up approximately 9.4% year over year over the month-long period ending July 7, 2026.

This is the textbook definition of a market finding balance: inventory declining because buyers are stepping in, not because sellers are withdrawing.

Demand Indicators: Buyers Are Returning

The forward-looking demand signals are the most encouraging part of the current market picture:

• Pending sales: 2,994 in June (+13.2% YoY), with 4,254 pending as of early August. The year-to-date pending count of 17,461 is up 9.8% over the first half of 2025.
• Showings: Up 9.4% year over year through early July across Travis and Williamson County ZIP codes, indicating sustained buyer foot traffic.
• Closed sales: 2,961 in June, up 0.6% YoY. The year-to-date total of 15,698 closed sales represents a 4.8% increase over the same period in 2025.
• Dollar volume: $1.81 billion in June (+5.9% YoY) and $8.96 billion year-to-date (+4.2%), meaning more total money is moving through the market even at lower per-unit prices.

Vaike O'Grady, market research advisor at Unlock MLS, noted in the mid-year report: "One of the strongest metrics that we continue to see is the growth in pending sales year-to-date. Pending sales provide us with an early look at where the market is headed, and when they're increasing alongside closed sales, it tells us buyers continue to move forward with confidence."

The activity is not uniform across price points. Entry-level and mid-range segments ($300K–$500K) are seeing the strongest demand, while the luxury tier ($2M+) continues to experience longer days on market and larger price reductions. This bifurcation is normal in a normalizing market and actually healthy — it suggests the core housing market is functioning while the top of the market self-corrects from its post-pandemic excess.

Mortgage Rates: Stable Enough to Build Momentum

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) tracked the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage through July 2026 as follows:

Week Ending	30-Year Fixed Rate
July 9, 2026	6.49%
July 16, 2026	6.55%
July 23, 2026	~6.58% (estimated)
July 30, 2026	6.66%
August 6, 2026	6.69%

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.01% as of August 6, down slightly from 6.04% the prior week.

A year ago, the 30-year FRM was at 6.72%, meaning rates are currently about 3–20 basis points below year-ago levels. While the July trend was upward — rising from 6.49% to 6.66% over the month — the range remains well below the 7%+ peaks seen in 2023 and early 2024. Importantly, rate volatility has diminished. Buyers who were paralyzed by sharp weekly swings in 2023 and 2024 are now operating in an environment where rates move in single-digit basis-point increments most weeks.

The psychological impact of rate stability should not be underestimated. Many potential buyers have been on the sidelines for two-plus years waiting for rates to "come back down." The reality that rates have settled into a 6.4%–6.7% corridor — and have shown no signs of returning to the 3%–4% era — is gradually resetting expectations. The market is adapting to the new normal, and that adaptation is showing up in the pending sales data.

Affordability Context

Even with the modest rate improvement, affordability remains stretched: the same home costs noticeably more per month than it did in the sub-4% environment that fueled the 2021 boom, according to Freddie Mac's rate history. A lender's Loan Estimate shows what a specific home costs you.

This is why the recovery is showing up as a floor rather than a rocket. Buyers are returning, but they are price-sensitive and rate-conscious. The homes that are selling are those priced correctly for the current rate environment — which explains why the close-to-list ratio remains at approximately 94% and days on market still average 55–65 days across the metro.

The Rental Market: A Parallel Story

The Austin rental market is experiencing its own rebalancing. Through the first half of 2026:

• 17,185 closed leases, up 7.3% year over year
• Median rent: $2,100, down 4.3% year over year
• 25,703 active lease listings, down 4.7% year over year
• 18,150 pending leases, up 8.0% year over year

Within Austin city limits, the median rent was $2,175 (down 5.4% YTD), with 8,993 closed leases (up 11.0%). The rental market is absorbing more tenants at lower prices — a dynamic that typically precedes a shift in the for-sale market as renters who build savings and credit eventually transition to ownership.

The declining rent trend also puts downward pressure on investor demand for single-family rentals, which had been a significant factor in Austin's 2021–2022 price surge. With cap rates compressed by lower rents and higher interest rates, investor activity has cooled — leaving more inventory for owner-occupant buyers, which is a healthier long-term foundation for the market.

County-by-County Snapshot

Photo by Carlos Delgado via Unsplash

Based on the most recent comprehensive Unlock MLS data (June 2026, the last full monthly report before this publication):

Market	Median Price	YoY Change	Months of Inventory	Avg. Days on Market
Austin-Round Rock MSA	$450,000	+1.1%	4.4 (-1.0)	62
City of Austin	$605,000	+3.6%	4.3 (-1.7)	48 (-4)
Travis County	$542,000	+4.0%	4.7 (-1.4)	53 (-2)
Williamson County	$426,800	Up less than 1%	3.7 (-1.2)	69 (+7)
Hays County	$400,000	+9.0%	4.8 (+0.5)	65 (-8)

Travis County continues to lead the recovery with the strongest price appreciation and fastest inventory drawdown. The city of Austin's 48 average days on market is the lowest in the metro and down 4 days from a year ago.

Williamson County remains the most affordable submarket at $426,800, though days on market have actually increased by 7 days — suggesting that the northern suburbs are absorbing inventory more slowly than the urban core. With 3.7 months of inventory, however, Williamson is technically the tightest market in the metro.

Hays County posted the most dramatic price gain at +9.0%, though this partly reflects a compositional shift (more higher-priced homes selling in the San Marcos/Buda corridor). Its 4.8 months of inventory actually increased slightly, indicating that new construction continues to add supply south of Austin.

Migration Patterns: Inbound Demand Sustains

Redfin migration data through the first quarter of 2026 shows that 74% of Austin homebuyers searched to stay within the Austin metropolitan area, indicating strong local retention. Among inbound movers, the top origin metros were:

1. Seattle, WA — 396 net inflow
2. San Francisco, CA — 350 net inflow
3. Dallas, TX — 331 net inflow
4. Los Angeles, CA — 313 net inflow
5. Houston, TX — 234 net inflow

The primary outbound destination was San Antonio (919 net outflow), followed by Corpus Christi and Killeen — suggesting that Austin residents seeking lower cost of living are moving to more affordable Texas cities rather than leaving the state entirely.

The continued inbound flow from high-cost coastal markets (Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles) provides a structural floor for Austin demand. Even with remote work policies shifting, Austin's tech sector employment base and relative affordability compared to coastal metros continue to attract relocating professionals.

What This Means for Buyers

For buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, the July data suggests the window of maximum leverage may be closing. Here is the current buyer's landscape:

Favorable factors:

• Inventory, while tightening, is still above pre-pandemic norms — there are choices
• Close-to-list ratios at ~94% mean there is still room to negotiate
• Mortgage rates, while not low, are stable and slightly below year-ago levels
• Sellers are still accepting price reductions on overpriced listings

Shifts to watch:

• Pending sales are accelerating, which means competition is increasing
• Inventory is falling, reducing the selection advantage
• Price reductions are becoming less frequent as the market finds its footing
• The best properties in the best locations are selling faster — the 48-day average DOM in Austin city limits is approaching what many consider a balanced market threshold

The practical takeaway: if you are a buyer who has been waiting for "the bottom," the data suggests you may be looking at it in the rearview mirror. The market is not about to rocket upward, but the downside risk is diminishing, and the cost of waiting (in terms of both selection and future price) is increasing.

What This Means for Sellers

Sellers should temper expectations. This is not a return to the multiple-offer, waive-inspection, $100K-over-asking environment of 2021. The current market rewards:

• Accurate pricing: Homes priced at or slightly below market are selling. Overpriced homes are sitting and eventually requiring reductions.
• Presentation: With 55–65 days on market, buyers have time to be selective. Homes that show well and are marketed professionally stand out.
• Patience: The 94% close-to-list ratio means most sellers are accepting some discount from list price. Setting a realistic list price from the start produces better outcomes than testing an aggressive number and reducing later.
• Strategic timing: Pending sales are strongest in the spring and early summer. Listing in late summer or fall may face softer demand, though inventory is also lower, which can offset the seasonal slowdown.

Outlook for the Rest of 2026

The second half of 2026 is setting up to be the most balanced Austin housing market since 2019. Here are the factors to watch:

1. Federal Reserve policy: If the Fed resumes rate cuts in the fall, mortgage rates could ease, which would likely accelerate the demand recovery.
2. Inventory trajectory: The 14.8% YoY decline in active listings is the most important supply-side variable. If new construction slows (as it has been), the inventory tightening could intensify.
3. Employment growth: Austin's tech sector has stabilized after the 2023–2024 layoffs. Continued job growth would support demand; any contraction would test the nascent price recovery.
4. Seasonal patterns: July and August typically see slightly lower median prices than June (as confirmed by the $440K July reading vs. $450K June). The key question is whether September–October maintain positive year-over-year comparisons.

The most likely scenario for the remainder of 2026 is a market that continues to firm up gradually — not a boom, but a sustained departure from the price-decline trajectory that has defined the past three years. The year-to-date median will likely remain slightly negative for several more months, but if monthly comparisons continue to print positive, the annual number will turn by early 2027.

Data Sources and Methodology

This report draws on data from the following sources:

• Unlock MLS (Austin Board of REALTORS®): Monthly market statistics for the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA, including median price, sales volume, inventory, pending sales, and close-to-list ratios. Data covers single-family homes, condos, and townhomes.
• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®): Weekly 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averages.
• Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center (TRESC): Statewide and metro-level housing market context.
• U.S. Census Bureau: Migration and population trend data.
• ShowingTime: Buyer showing activity metrics.
• Redfin: Market competitiveness scores and migration flow data.

All price and sales figures are sourced from Unlock MLS unless otherwise noted. Year-over-year comparisons compare the same month across consecutive years. Preliminary July 2026 figures may be revised when the full Unlock MLS monthly report is released.

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This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or real estate advice. Market data is subject to revision. Consult a licensed real estate professional for guidance specific to your situation.

Robotina Blog · Published August 7, 2026

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Brokerage: Keller Williams Austin NW

TREC Disclaimer: The information herein was obtained from the Austin Board of REALTORS® (Unlock MLS) and other sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Neither the Austin Board of REALTORS® nor Unlock MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. All information is provided "AS IS" and with all faults. Data maintained by the Board or ACTRIS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute real estate advice. Consult a licensed Texas real estate professional (TREC Licensee) for guidance specific to your situation.

TREC Information About Brokerage Services (IABS) and Consumer Protection Notice are available at sullyruiz.com/downloads/iabs-sully-ruiz.pdf.

Sully Ruiz is a Texas-licensed real estate sales agent (TREC #0742907). Her sponsoring broker is Keller Williams Austin NW. She works with buyers and sellers in Austin and Central Texas, in English and Spanish — as their real estate agent, not their lender.